Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.243719 21.961448 23.813710 25.969224 28.421032 31.137800 34.396328
2025-09-21 17.387458 19.712720 22.390906 25.741268 29.874700 34.881860 41.525672
2025-09-28 15.988413 18.786737 22.190563 26.722845 32.740054 40.673715 52.331527
2025-10-05 14.461997 17.444118 21.221850 26.499367 33.929129 44.444617 61.357429
2025-10-12 13.362161 16.473293 20.551971 26.492234 35.305987 48.631567 72.052209
2025-10-19 12.576349 15.806174 20.172093 26.777419 37.074455 53.679373 85.652745
2025-10-26 11.787176 15.045017 19.559358 26.607583 38.065510 57.618468 98.579327
2025-11-02 11.092705 14.347032 18.954004 26.348332 38.830005 61.275915 112.306741
2025-11-09 10.547904 13.812119 18.527173 26.297791 39.906310 65.704484 129.651914
2025-11-16 10.034122 13.280317 18.052212 26.102081 40.674016 69.680614 147.877036
2025-11-23 9.572665 12.791539 17.598738 25.883101 41.349081 73.607400 168.212242
2025-11-30 9.161323 12.349678 17.181144 25.674484 42.000441 77.633538 191.507170
2025-12-07 8.799224 11.968100 16.842300 25.589335 42.929089 82.682127 222.801075
2025-12-14 8.423686 11.544852 16.407404 25.290656 43.384058 86.746709 254.540177
2025-12-21 8.312549 11.524997 16.628438 26.212966 46.587813 99.081569 338.303843
2025-12-28 7.999746 11.167487 16.258773 25.981199 47.200068 104.440399 396.314089
2026-01-04 7.749348 10.896001 16.015848 25.968067 48.315612 111.761698 481.612097
2026-01-11 7.564778 10.720427 15.924612 26.242349 50.167593 122.257981 620.220950
2026-01-18 7.323613 10.439588 15.630433 26.076274 50.903660 129.315618 756.446724
2026-01-25 7.085911 10.153250 15.309092 25.824024 51.381817 135.714649 917.925829
2026-02-01 6.893618 9.933716 15.094158 25.774732 52.393495 144.754056 1177.133826
2026-02-08 6.693363 9.691876 14.824762 25.584567 52.995664 152.503657 1492.228450
2026-02-15 6.502070 9.457218 14.555681 25.371831 53.506168 160.230596 1917.527073